The thought-provoking paper “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” by Citrini Research (here) attracted the attention of the industry at a particularly eventful time. While there was much criticism of the paper from “professionals” in all domains, to me this type of scenario analysis, unlikely as it might seem today, serves a great purpose – to force us to think outside the box. Finance and science are both full of episodes which seemed to be precluded by current thinking at the time but turned out to be possible, and indeed caused a “crisis” in both disciplines. We can paraphrase what Borges said: “Reality is not always probable or likely” into “UnReality is not always improbable, or unlikely”. My own mantra has been to “expect the unexpected”, especially when it is driven by technological innovation.
For example, when I was learning finance, there was an unbreakable “law” of finance that said interest rates and yields could never go negative, since that would allow for infinite arbitrage. Well, in reality this “law” was temporarily broken…
The full note on this important topic can be downloaded at this link: LTA Thinking – The Upcoming Global Intelligence Gap